HVAC Technician Job Outlook, 2025 to 2035
BLS Employment Projections for heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers, plus HVAC jobs in every state from the May 2025 wage survey.
HVAC jobs in your state
Alabama
Jobs per 1,000 jobs: 3.910. Location quotient: 1.48.
Data as of May 2025: BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, released May 15, 2026. Projections: BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2025 to 2035.
The national outlook for HVAC technicians is strong. BLS projects that employment will grow 11 percent from 2025 to 2035, much faster than the average for all occupations, and that about 40,600 jobs will open each year on average. Most of those openings come from the need to replace workers who move to other jobs or retire, not only from growth. The state tool above shows how many HVAC jobs each state had in May 2025 and how concentrated the trade is there compared with the country as a whole.
BLS projections, 2025 to 2035
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Employment, 2025 | 440,900 |
| Projected employment, 2035 | 489,100 |
| Change, 2025 to 2035 | +48,200 (11%) |
| Openings per year, on average | 40,600 |
| Growth, all occupations | 3% |
| Growth, installation, maintenance, and repair occupations | 5% |
Worked example: what 11 percent means
BLS projects 489,100 jobs in 2035 against 440,900 in 2025. The difference is 489,100 - 440,900 = 48,200 jobs, and 48,200 / 440,900 = 10.9%, which BLS rounds to 11 percent. Over ten years, the 40,600 openings a year add up to about 406,000 openings, far more than the 48,200 new jobs, because most openings replace people who leave the occupation.
Where HVAC technicians work and what they earn
| Industry | Share of jobs | Median annual wage, May 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Plumbing, heating, and air-conditioning contractors | 68% | $60,030 |
| Wholesale trade | 3% | $71,190 |
| Educational services; state, local, and private | 3% | $62,520 |
| Retail trade | 3% | $62,830 |
| Self-employed workers | 6% | not published |
| Occupation | Median pay |
|---|---|
| Heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers | $61,010 |
| Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters | $63,800 |
| Electricians | $63,190 |
| Sheet metal workers | $61,800 |
| Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations | $59,620 |
| Total, all occupations | $50,980 |
BLS also notes that HVAC technicians have one of the highest rates of injuries and illnesses of all occupations. Most work full time, schedules may include evening or weekend shifts, and some work overtime or irregular schedules during peak heating and cooling seasons.
HVAC jobs by state, May 2025
Employment, jobs per 1,000 jobs, and the location quotient come from the BLS OEWS state file. A location quotient of 1.50 means HVAC work is one and a half times as common in that state as in the U.S. overall.
51 of 51 rows shown
| Alabama | 8,260 | 3.910 | 1.48 | $48,370 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | 610 | 1.886 | 0.72 | $77,430 |
| Arizona | 10,860 | 3.351 | 1.27 | $59,400 |
| Arkansas | 4,960 | 3.804 | 1.44 | $48,110 |
| California | 35,130 | 1.929 | 0.73 | $72,560 |
| Colorado | 8,940 | 3.110 | 1.18 | $65,200 |
| Connecticut | 3,800 | 2.243 | 0.85 | $76,610 |
| Delaware | 1,730 | 3.567 | 1.35 | $62,320 |
| District of Columbia | 400 | 0.566 | 0.21 | $84,390 |
| Florida | 39,160 | 3.944 | 1.50 | $56,670 |
| Georgia | 12,290 | 2.513 | 0.95 | $56,390 |
| Hawaii | 1,300 | 2.070 | 0.79 | $65,450 |
| Idaho | 4,550 | 5.311 | 2.02 | $56,240 |
| Illinois | 9,740 | 1.597 | 0.61 | $77,410 |
| Indiana | 8,530 | 2.666 | 1.01 | $60,430 |
| Iowa | 3,840 | 2.462 | 0.93 | $60,680 |
| Kansas | 3,770 | 2.621 | 0.99 | $60,460 |
| Kentucky | 5,100 | 2.549 | 0.97 | $58,620 |
| Louisiana | 5,380 | 2.779 | 1.05 | $58,650 |
| Maine | 2,250 | 3.513 | 1.33 | $63,170 |
| Maryland | 8,560 | 3.097 | 1.18 | $70,020 |
| Massachusetts | 8,200 | 2.255 | 0.86 | $77,300 |
| Michigan | 12,590 | 2.860 | 1.09 | $60,850 |
| Minnesota | 4,200 | 1.423 | 0.54 | $76,350 |
| Mississippi | 2,700 | 2.326 | 0.88 | $48,680 |
| Missouri | 7,220 | 2.457 | 0.93 | $59,950 |
| Montana | 1,230 | 2.407 | 0.91 | $60,850 |
| Nebraska | 3,020 | 2.946 | 1.12 | $59,850 |
| Nevada | 4,170 | 2.689 | 1.02 | $60,510 |
| New Hampshire | 2,560 | 3.752 | 1.42 | $73,850 |
| New Jersey | 10,330 | 2.411 | 0.92 | $74,450 |
| New Mexico | 1,950 | 2.235 | 0.85 | $50,270 |
| New York | 24,430 | 2.521 | 0.96 | $74,430 |
| North Carolina | 15,230 | 3.082 | 1.17 | $57,260 |
| North Dakota | 970 | 2.249 | 0.85 | $74,490 |
| Ohio | 14,150 | 2.549 | 0.97 | $62,510 |
| Oklahoma | 5,650 | 3.306 | 1.25 | $57,560 |
| Oregon | 3,980 | 2.026 | 0.77 | $62,940 |
| Pennsylvania | 15,880 | 2.619 | 0.99 | $62,400 |
| Rhode Island | 1,450 | 2.890 | 1.10 | $67,370 |
| South Carolina | 6,920 | 3.001 | 1.14 | $56,610 |
| South Dakota | 1,610 | 3.517 | 1.34 | $61,390 |
| Tennessee | 9,740 | 2.971 | 1.13 | $55,490 |
| Texas | 34,730 | 2.468 | 0.94 | $57,760 |
| Utah | 5,580 | 3.213 | 1.22 | $58,730 |
| Vermont | 970 | 3.201 | 1.22 | $62,150 |
| Virginia | 14,690 | 3.574 | 1.36 | $59,730 |
| Washington | 7,370 | 2.074 | 0.79 | $75,660 |
| West Virginia | 1,690 | 2.402 | 0.91 | $48,850 |
| Wisconsin | 6,630 | 2.253 | 0.86 | $61,710 |
| Wyoming | 690 | 2.460 | 0.93 | $54,700 |
Frequently asked questions
Is HVAC a good career for the future?
BLS projects employment of HVAC technicians to grow 11 percent from 2025 to 2035, much faster than the 3 percent average for all occupations, with about 40,600 openings each year on average.
How many HVAC technicians are there?
BLS projections count about 440,900 jobs in 2025, including the self-employed. The OEWS wage survey, which excludes the self-employed, counts 409,670 wage and salary jobs in May 2025.
What will drive demand for HVAC technicians?
BLS says commercial construction, including data centers, and residential building construction are expected to drive employment growth, along with more sophisticated climate-control systems.
Where do most HVAC technicians work?
BLS reports that 68 percent work for plumbing, heating, and air-conditioning contractors, 6 percent are self-employed, and 3 percent each work in wholesale trade, educational services, and retail trade.
Which states have the most HVAC jobs?
Florida has the most (39,160 in May 2025), followed by California and Texas. Relative to all jobs, HVAC work is most concentrated in Idaho, Florida, and Alabama.
More HVAC tools
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Sources
- BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook: Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers. Read from an Internet Archive copy dated September 30, 2026 because the agency site blocks automated access.
- BLS OEWS May 2025 state data file (oesm25st.zip).